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The previous week was marked by significant policy changes emanating from the White House, casting doubt on the reliability of official communications. A notable example of this unpredictability was President Donald Trump’s ever-changing position on tariffs concerning Canada and Mexico, which swung from being firmly established to nearly dismissed, only to resurface as a vague possibility. Amid this tumult, Trump expressed admiration for Elon Musk’s ability to lay off thousands of government workers during a congressional address rife with misleading statements. Just two days later, following a critical Cabinet meeting, Trump announced new restrictions on Musk’s powers.
Yet, amid these bewildering events in Washington, one statement from Trump stands out for its sheer absurdity. “I’m not even looking at the market,” he remarked on Thursday, a claim that left even his supporters momentarily speechless.
A senior aide within the Republican leadership perhaps best encapsulated D.C.’s collective disbelief when he sent me an eye-roll emoji via an encrypted messaging platform. Another Republican, who once held a prominent position in Trump’s administration, quipped that we might have entered an alternate reality: “We are on Earth 10,000.”
Throughout his first term, this President often pointed to Wall Street as a barometer for the economy’s health and his own effectiveness as a leader. “That significant Stock Market increase is my achievement,” Trump declared in a now-infamous tweet back in 2019. “If Hillary had won – we’d be facing a major crash!”
Therefore, despite Trump’s claims on Thursday regarding the effects of his confusing tariff policies, this administration fundamentally hinges on market performance—its fate rises and falls with it, and currently, that trend is downward.
The job report released on Friday was expected to support Wall Street’s recovery after the market saw significant declines since Trump’s election in November. Since reaching its peak on December 16, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen by 10%—a high that Trump once celebrated. The broader Dow is down over 5%. A frantic sell-off has placed the markets on track for their most challenging week since September. As one political consultant to the financial services industry expressed in frustration at a conference for credit union executives, “We’re exhausted, and it’s still Q1.”
The Friday job report delivered mixed signals. The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. While these figures slightly fell short of expectations, the real concern lies in the wave of mass layoffs and federal downsizing that hasn’t yet been reflected in the numbers. Additionally, the report lacked the strength to counter the ongoing turmoil from tariffs, which is undermining confidence in future investments.
It may not be particularly articulate, but it certainly resonates: the so-called “Trump Bump” that followed his return to power has now morphed into a “Trump Slump.” A staggering $3 trillion in wealth that accumulated since Election Day vanished just this past week.
The duration of this downturn remains uncertain. Friday’s job report merely adds another layer to the narrative of Trump’s economic legacy during his second term. Whether it will be viewed as a dismal basement or a gleaming skyscraper is still up for discussion.
However, investors are growing weary of the unpredictability surrounding Trump’s administration, where no one seems reliable when it comes to policy announcements. Billionaire Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick claimed on a business broadcast that the tariffs were here to stay, only to be embarrassed days later as Trump suggested they might be delayed. Then, on Friday, Trump reinstated the tariffs and threatened an astonishing 250% duty on Canadian dairy and timber.
Much of this market instability can be traced back to Trump’s erratic behavior and the influence of individuals like Musk. As a result, many contractors find themselves anxiously refreshing Musk’s DOGE account, hoping for payment for work that has already been approved and completed.
Importantly, while Washington may be gradually adjusting to the unpredictable nature of many decisions emerging from the White House, Wall Street is decidedly not in sync. It has become a crisis unfolding by the hour; decisions affecting the market can change between phone calls, only to be reversed shortly after. Furthermore, we have yet to see an official jobs report that accounts for the ongoing cuts across federal agencies or how the potential decline in services, such as food safety inspections or weather forecasting, could ripple through both U.S. and global economies. We find ourselves on this rollercoaster, witnessing the departure of those who ensure its smooth operation.
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