Growing up in Miami among Cuban exiles who fled Fidel Castro’s regime, Senator Marco Rubio developed a profound dislike for communism. Now that he is President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Rubio is ready to apply that ideological passion toward reshaping U.S. foreign policy in Latin America.
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As the first Latino Secretary of State, Rubio is expected to prioritize what many have casually referred to as Washington’s backyard.
With a background as the leading Republican on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and a long-standing member of the Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio has leveraged his extensive experience and personal networks to shape U.S. policy in Latin America for years.
After the Cold War, Latin America gradually receded from the center of U.S. foreign policy, even as adversaries like Russia, Iran, and particularly China expanded their influence. If confirmed, Rubio is likely to address this oversight.
However, Rubio’s hardline views on national security, his backing of Trump’s aggressive deportation strategies, and his provocative rhetoric might alienate certain U.S. allies in the region who are wary of aligning with the new administration’s America First doctrine.
Christopher Sabatini, a research fellow at Chatham House in London, observed, “Typically, lower-ranking officials handle Latin American policy. Yet, Rubio’s instincts are finely tuned to the region. His engagement will compel governments to adopt a more collaborative approach to strengthen ties with the U.S.”
Through a spokesperson, Rubio has refrained from sharing details about his foreign policy agenda.
Nevertheless, his views on Latin America sharply contrast with the Biden administration’s focus on multilateral dialogue and diplomacy with U.S. critics.
Following Trump’s example, Rubio is likely to prioritize issues in Mexico, especially trade, drug trafficking, and immigration. Once a supporter of bipartisan reforms offering undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship, Rubio transformed into a staunch advocate for stricter border security and mass deportations during Trump’s first term.
While Rubio has remained largely quiet regarding newly elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, he was vocal in criticizing her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador, who notably opted out of the U.S.-hosted Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles to meet with leftist leaders in Cuba.
Rubio accused López Obrador of yielding to drug cartels and being an “apologist for tyranny” in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. In response, López Obrador branded Rubio a “racist.”
Despite this diplomatic slight, López Obrador received a warm welcome from President Joe Biden at the White House just weeks later, where he was referred to as a “friend” and “partner.”
“That kind of welcoming will not be the norm under Rubio,” Sabatini pointed out. “He keeps a close eye on who aligns with his policy objectives.”
Now at 53, Rubio has been a key advisor to Trump on Latin American matters, actively promoting a strict agenda. He is known for his vocal criticism of Russian and Chinese influence in the region and is expected to impose repercussions on nations that align with U.S. adversaries or neglect to support Israel.
When Trump canceled his inaugural visit to Latin America in 2018, Rubio stepped in to engage with leaders from countries like Argentina and Haiti at the Summit of the Americas in Peru.
“Nobody in the U.S. Senate has his level of expertise and understanding of Latin America,” remarked Carlos Trujillo, a close ally of Rubio and former U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States. “He has nurtured personal connections with numerous officials over the years and has closely vetted nearly every U.S. ambassador assigned to the region, which is a considerable advantage.”
Among those eager to work with Rubio is Argentina’s President Javier Milei, whose bold persona and rise from television to far-right politician draw comparisons to Trump.
El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, recognized for his strict measures against gang violence that have historically pushed Salvadoran migrants toward the U.S., has also received Rubio’s praise.
Rubio has been unafraid to wield his influence against leftist leaders he regards as threats to U.S. interests. Even moderate leaders who have been democratically elected have not escaped his sharp criticism. Earlier this year, he condemned Chilean President Gabriel Boric—known for his critiques of Israel—for allegedly providing sanctuary to financiers of Hezbollah, labeling him “one of the leading anti-Israel voices in Latin America.”
In 2023, he referred to Colombian President Gustavo Petro, a former M-19 guerrilla group member, as a “dangerous” choice for a country that has long been a crucial U.S. ally in the war on drugs.
However, it is in Venezuela where Rubio’s influence has been most pronounced.
Shortly after Trump took office in January 2017, Rubio arranged for the wife of prominent Venezuelan dissident Leopoldo Lopez to visit the White House. This meeting, highlighted by a photo of a smiling Trump and Rubio alongside the imprisoned activist’s wife, brought Venezuela into the spotlight of U.S. foreign policy, marking a shift from previous administrations’ more hands-off approach to the country’s crises.
In the following two years, Trump imposed stringent oil sanctions on Venezuela, accused various officials of corruption, and even discussed a “military option” to remove President Nicolás Maduro. By 2019, at the height of Rubio’s influence, the U.S. formally recognized National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela.
Nonetheless, this aggressive strategy—popular among the South Florida exile community—eventually became a burden for Trump, who later admitted that he had overestimated the opposition. This hardline approach also bolstered Maduro’s position and opened the door to increased Russian, Chinese, and Iranian involvement in Venezuela, worsening a humanitarian crisis that has driven millions to seek refuge in the U.S.
Michael Shifter, former president of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, speculates that Trump may adopt a more lenient stance toward Maduro this time, even with Rubio leading the State Department, potentially continuing the engagement and sanctions relief strategy initiated by the Biden administration.
“Trump might begin treating Maduro like other global strongmen, paying less attention to the Cuban-American exile community in Florida,” Shifter suggested.
Trujillo believes that Rubio’s reputation for honesty will serve him well in negotiations with both allies and adversaries, even if he needs to temper his occasionally heated rhetoric.
“He’ll have to adjust his approach now, but he is an exceptional negotiator, and I’m confident he will rise to the occasion,” Trujillo stated.
With Trump appointing another vocal critic of Maduro, Representative Michael Waltz from Florida, as national security adviser, Trujillo remarked that Maduro and his authoritarian counterparts in Cuba and Nicaragua should be concerned.
So far, officials in Venezuela and Cuba, who regularly denounce the U.S. on social media, have largely refrained from commenting on Rubio’s nomination or Trump’s election.
“There’s potential for negotiation, but it must be approached sincerely,” Trujillo said. “Failure to do so will lead to consequences.”
—Goodman reported from Miami. Additional contributions to this report came from Mark Stevenson and Maria Verza in Mexico City, and Isabel DeBre in Buenos Aires.
