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As President Joe Biden nears his final week in office, he is about to confront the reality that his long-standing commitment to the Democratic Party may not carry much weight once he exits the Oval Office.
In these last days, Biden is likely feeling a mix of frustration and a sense of betrayal as his approval ratings dive to numbers reminiscent of former President Jimmy Carter. Just last week, Biden honored Carter, another one-term Democrat who faced public disillusionment, leading to his replacement by an unexpected candidate. Adding to his woes, catastrophic wildfires in California have forced him to cancel plans for a final international trip to Italy and the Vatican. On Monday night, he is scheduled to deliver the first of two speeches aimed at solidifying his legacy, though they are unlikely to rekindle enthusiasm among supporters as he shifts into the role of elder statesman.
The numbers tell a sobering story: just 37% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, a slight uptick from Carter’s exit rating by about five points, but a considerable decline from the 53% approval he had at the start of his presidency, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling. An Associated Press-NORC poll indicates Biden’s approval is at 39%, with only 72% of Democrats still backing him, down from an impressive 97% when he took office. Moreover, more than half of Democrats—55%—report feeling no better off now than they did before Biden’s presidency began, according to the same poll. Essentially, Biden is viewed as a leader struggling to steer a party that feels marginalized within the halls of power, much like himself.
Since the midterm elections, a quiet yet widespread discontent has surfaced regarding Biden’s decisions, particularly after the Democrats’ surprisingly robust performance in the 2022 midterms, which briefly raised hopes for maintaining the White House in 2024. Biden’s ambition for another term now seems questionable, although he remains steadfast. In a recent interview, he confidently claimed he would have defeated Trump if they had faced off again.
“It may be presumptuous to say that, but I believe it to be true,” Biden stated in an exclusive print exit interview with USA Today.
His ongoing optimism has drained the already limited goodwill he has among Democrats. His decision to pardon his son, Hunter Biden, has complicated the party’s narrative on equal treatment under the law, especially in light of Trump’s legal challenges. His awarding of the nation’s highest civilian honors to prominent figures like George Soros and Hillary Clinton prompted significant backlash from conservative factions, while a bipartisan attempt to honor the late Governor George Romney received mixed reactions, despite the positive feedback he garnered for his efforts to clear federal death row.
As Monday approaches, Biden will deliver his first farewell address at the State Department, focusing on what his administration touts as foreign policy triumphs. However, his critics within the Democratic Party are quick to highlight setbacks, including the tumultuous withdrawal from Afghanistan and ongoing strife in the Middle East, alongside the persistent Russian invasion of Ukraine and a more aggressive China. Given Biden’s extensive experience as a senior Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as his roles as Vice President and President, this legacy-focused speech appears fitting, particularly for a nation that may not be fully engaged in international matters.
After that, he plans to deliver a more traditional farewell from the Oval Office on Wednesday before returning to Delaware next Monday.
Discontent with outgoing Presidents is certainly not a new occurrence. Even among Democrats, there was noticeable fatigue by the time Obama delivered his farewell address in Chicago, where his political journey began. George W. Bush’s final months were marred by crises, such as a financial disaster and an auto industry bailout, causing him to prioritize legacy-building trips abroad over attending the GOP convention. Bill Clinton exited office as a popular figure, yet his Vice President, Al Gore, consciously distanced himself to maintain Democratic control in the White House.
To be candid, Biden’s situation appears more precarious than that of his predecessors, according to polling data. Public sentiment has turned against him, with some Democrats blaming him for paving the way for another Trump presidency. Even his most loyal supporters seem reluctant to engage with his legacy. While White House aides argue persuasively that Biden’s legislative achievements rival those of previous Presidents, a legacy is often shaped by public perception rather than by objective measures. This has been evident in past elections, from Trump’s third campaign to Obama’s effective messaging during the 2008 crisis and Bush’s promises of decency following Clinton’s scandals.
However, Biden shouldn’t lose hope: history indicates that former Presidents often see their reputations shift post-presidency.
In this regard—more than any well-crafted speech or favorable narrative concocted by his team—Biden should take comfort. While current polling displays a historic low, there remains ample opportunity for a rebound, often occurring quite swiftly. Gallup regularly conducts follow-up polls with former Presidents, revealing significant improvements in initial assessments: Ronald Reagan experienced a 15-point increase, Carter saw a 12-point rise, and George H.W. Bush enjoyed a 10-point boost in approval ratings. Perhaps, after some time out of the limelight, the nation might extend Biden a similar chance for redemption—though it won’t alter the reality that he may never occupy the position he has sought for most of his life. Snap judgments—just like elections—can sometimes miss the broader context.
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