WASHINGTON —
President-elect Donald Trump is gearing up to create a National Energy Council with the goal of establishing the United States as a frontrunner in global energy production. This initiative underscores his plan to intensify oil and gas drilling efforts while stepping away from President Joe Biden’s focus on climate-related policies.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, whom Trump has nominated for the Interior Department, is expected to lead this council, which will be crucial in advancing Trump’s mantra of “drill, drill, drill.” The council’s mission will include boosting energy exports to U.S. allies in Europe and beyond.
This new council will wield significant power over federal agencies involved in energy management, covering areas such as permitting, production, and regulation. Trump has indicated that the council will aim to dismantle bureaucratic obstacles, draw private investment, and prioritize innovation over what he views as burdensome regulations.
Nonetheless, Trump’s aspirations for energy supremacy may encounter real-world hurdles. Under Biden’s administration, U.S. oil production has already soared to unprecedented levels. Additionally, the federal government does not possess the authority to force companies to ramp up drilling, and any increase in production could potentially lead to lower prices and reduced profits.
The notion of energy dominance, which Trump promoted during his first term, is perceived by some analysts as more of an opportunity rather than a directive for the oil sector. Kevin Book, an energy analyst, points out that the industry might be more inclined to pursue drilling ventures under conditions likely to be more favorable than those prevailing under Biden’s administration.
Ultimately, Trump’s ability to attain energy dominance will hinge on the choices made by private companies, which will be shaped by their assessments of global supply and demand, as noted by Book, who is the managing partner at ClearView Energy Partners. An immediate influx of new oil drilling projects across the nation is not anticipated.
Moreover, Trump’s plans to boost oil availability and lower U.S. prices are further complicated by his recent threat to impose a 25% import tariff on Canada and Mexico, two of the primary oil suppliers to the United States. The oil sector has warned that such tariffs could result in increased prices and potential threats to national security.
“Canada and Mexico are our key energy trading partners, and ensuring seamless energy transactions across borders is vital for North American energy security and U.S. consumers,” said Scott Lauermann from the American Petroleum Institute, a leading lobbying organization for the oil industry.
Similarly, the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, representing American refineries, voiced strong opposition to the proposed tariffs, stressing that U.S. refiners rely heavily on crude oil from Canada and Mexico to produce affordable fuels for consumers.
Scott Segal, a former official from the Bush administration, remarked that the decision to centralize energy policy at the White House is reminiscent of Biden’s strategy, which involved appointing a team of advisors focused on climate policy. Segal characterized Burgum as “a steady hand on the tiller” due to his experience in both fossil fuel and renewable energy fields.
In contrast to Biden’s climate advisors—Gina McCarthy, John Podesta, and Ali Zaidi—Burgum is expected to serve as a Senate-confirmed Cabinet member.
Dustin Meyer, senior vice president of policy, economics, and regulatory affairs at the American Petroleum Institute, described the establishment of the new energy council as “a positive development” for the U.S. economy and trade and advocated for improved coordination across energy sectors.
However, Meyer stressed that “market dynamics will always be the key factor” in any potential increase in energy production.
Jonathan Elkind, a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, referred to energy dominance as a “deliberately vague concept.” He expressed doubts about Trump’s capability to boost oil production in an already saturated market.
Trump has claimed he would reduce gasoline prices to below $2 a gallon, but experts regard this goal as unrealistic without a substantial decline in crude oil prices. As of Wednesday, the average national gas price stood at $3.07, down from $3.25 a year prior.
Elkind and other experts hope that the new energy council will also prioritize renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and geothermal, alongside nuclear power, since these options do not emit greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.
“Ignoring climate change, which represents an existential threat to our planet, is a grave concern and could result in significant losses in both American property and lives,” Elkind cautioned. He cited federal data indicating that over two dozen weather-related disasters this year alone caused damages exceeding $1 billion each and resulted in 418 fatalities.
Trump has minimized the risks associated with climate change and has pledged to eliminate unspent funds from the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate and healthcare legislation. He has also expressed intentions to halt offshore wind development when he returns to the White House in January.
Despite this, his announcement on November 15 regarding the energy council emphasized a focus on “expanding ALL forms of energy production to boost our economy and create high-paying jobs.”
This statement included a reference to renewable energy, as observed by Safak Yucel, an associate professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
“The council is tasked with ensuring U.S. dominance globally, but what could be more American than harnessing solar and wind energy?” he posed, citing a report from Ernst & Young that identified solar energy as the most cost-effective new electricity source in many markets.
Trump has stated his intent to significantly enhance baseload power to reduce electricity costs, prevent blackouts, and “WIN the battle for AI supremacy.”
Before taking on the energy role, Burgum emphasized a similar goal, highlighting the growing demand for electricity driven by artificial intelligence and rapidly expanding data centers. “The AI competition influences everything from defense to healthcare to education to national productivity,” Burgum noted.
While Trump has dismissed the climate law as the “green new scam,” experts believe he is unlikely to fully dismantle it. A significant reason is that much of its investment and job creation occurs in Republican districts. GOP lawmakers have urged House Speaker Mike Johnson to preserve the law, which was passed solely with Democratic backing.
“Many Southern states are informing Trump that they indeed support renewables,” Yucel pointed out, noting that Republican-led states have experienced substantial job growth in the wind, solar, and battery sectors in recent years.
If renewables continue to prove economically viable, he concluded, “they will endure.”
